目的 :从医院管理的需要出发 ,对医院目标管理中的主要指标进行统计预测。方法 :用趋势直线预测法和趋势季节模型预测法。结果 :通过预测可以反映现象发展变化的趋势 ,掌握现象变化的规律 ,为领导决策和制定长远规划提供依据 ;为统计预测提供必要的条件。结论 :季节变动指数不具备通用性 ,要根据医院情况编制适合自己特点的季节变动指数。结合应用季节模型预测法预测医院的分季度统计指标值 ,是医院统计预测技术中的一种预测方法。 Objectives: To proceed from the needs of hospital management and make statistical predictions on the main indicators of hospital target management. Methods : Using the trend line forecast method and the trend season model forecast method. Results: The prediction can reflect the trend of the development of the phenomenon, grasp the law of the phenomenon change, provide basis for the leaders to make decisions and make long-term plans, and provide necessary conditions for the statistical forecast. Conclusion : The seasonal variation index is not universal, and the seasonal variation index suitable for its own characteristics should be compiled according to the hospital situation. Combining the application of seasonal model prediction method to predict the quarterly statistical index values ​​of hospitals is a prediction method in the hospital statistical forecasting technology.