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为评价城市水资源短缺风险,以5个风险指标建立了乌鲁木齐市水资源短缺风险评价模型,基于2004～2010年用水量资料与随机模拟的供水量资料,结合指定情境采用模糊集对评价方法对评价模型进行求解,并与模糊综合评价法、灰关联分析法、模糊物元评价法的评价结果进行了比较。结果表明,模糊集对评价方法合理简便,乌鲁木齐市水资源短缺风险从2004年的低风险向2010年较高风险发展,未来乌鲁木齐市水资源短缺风险将持续保持在高风险下,可见乌鲁木齐市实施外部引水和内部节水措施刻不容缓。
In order to evaluate the urban water shortage risk, a five-risk indicator was established to evaluate the water shortage risk in Urumqi. Based on the data of water consumption from 2004 to 2010 and the data of water supply simulated randomly, the fuzzy set pair evaluation method Evaluation model to solve, and compared with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, gray relational analysis method and fuzzy matter element evaluation method. The results show that the evaluation method of fuzzy set is reasonable and simple, Urumqi, the low water risk from low risk in 2004 to the higher risk of development in 2010, the future of Urumqi, the water shortage risk will remain under high risk, we can see the implementation of Urumqi External water diversion and internal water-saving measures without delay.