本文将市场均衡理论与BP神经网络相结合,从新船价格、新船订单量和完工量三个指标来衡量我国船舶市场的风险。采用专家评分法得出样本数据的警情,用训练样本数据训练BP神经网络预警模型,通过测试样本进行模型检验,并对2012年造船市场风险进行预警。 This article combines market equilibrium theory with BP neural network to measure the risk of China’s shipbuilding market from the three indexes of new ship price, new ship order quantity and completion volume. The expert rating method was used to obtain the police intelligence of the sample data. The training samples were used to train the BP neural network early warning model, and the model was tested by the test samples. The risk of the shipbuilding market in 2012 was forewarning.