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运用1992年至2012年中国原木进口国别数据,采用AIDS模型和ECM-AIDS模型对中国原木进口的需求弹性进行估算。结果发现:不论是静态模型还是动态模型计算的支出弹性,大都为正值,表明在中国原木进口市场上,进口量与进口总支出正相关;自我补偿价格弹性均为负值,从进口数量对进口价格敏感度考虑,澳大利亚、俄罗斯、加拿大、美国、新西兰、缅甸、印度尼西亚等国的原木比较敏感,而其他国家原木进口数量对价格敏感度较差;交叉价格弹性静态模型计算结果显示,马来西亚、俄罗斯、缅甸原木与其他国家原木均为互补关系,澳大利亚与马来西亚和印度尼西亚、加拿大与印度尼西亚、美国与新西兰、缅甸与印度尼西亚为替代关系,动态模型计算结果显示,马来西亚、俄罗斯、缅甸与其他主要国家均表现互补关系,而且多数国家原木主要表现互补关系,澳大利亚和加拿大与印度尼西亚、美国与新西兰、新西兰与印度尼西亚、缅甸与印度尼西亚为替代关系。
Using the country logs import data from 1992 to 2012, using the AIDS model and the ECM-AIDS model to estimate the demand elasticity of China’s timber imports. The results show that the expenditure elasticity calculated by both static model and dynamic model is mostly positive, indicating that the import volume is positively correlated with the total import expenditure in China’s log import market. The self-compensating price elasticity is negative, Logs from Australia, Russia, Canada, the United States, New Zealand, Myanmar, Indonesia and other countries are more sensitive to import price sensitivity, while log imports from other countries are less sensitive to price. The cross-price elastic static model shows that the prices of logs in Malaysia, Russia, Burma logs and logs of other countries are complementary. Australia and Malaysia and Indonesia, Canada and Indonesia, the United States and New Zealand, Myanmar and Indonesia are substitutes. The dynamic model calculations show that Malaysia, Russia, Myanmar and other major countries Showing complementarities. In most countries, logs are mainly complementary, with Australia and Canada substituting Indonesia, the United States and New Zealand, New Zealand and Indonesia, Myanmar and Indonesia as substitutes.