变形危害巨大,变形监测与变形预测则成为必然,由于变形的过程受到地质、水文、地震和人类工程活动等因素的影响,可视为一种具有混沌特征的动力系统。故本文以混沌理论为基础,提出了基于最大Lyapunov指数的变形观测模式,并利用工程实例进行了分析研究。研究表明,变形监测时间序列中的最大Lyapunov指数均大于0,根据混沌理论,可判断变形序列存在混沌现象,同时预测的结果显示,基于混沌时间序列的最大Lyapunov指数法的预测具有较高的精度,故研究成果具有的一定的理论和应用价值,为变形预测提供了新途径。 It is necessary to predict deformation and deformation. Since the process of deformation is affected by such factors as geology, hydrology, earthquakes and human engineering activities, it can be considered as a dynamic system with chaotic characteristics. Therefore, based on the chaos theory, this paper presents a deformation observation model based on the maximum Lyapunov exponent, and analyzes and studies by using engineering examples. The results show that the maximum Lyapunov exponent in the time series of deformation monitoring is greater than 0. According to the chaos theory, the chaos phenomenon can be judged by the deformation sequence. The prediction results show that the prediction of the largest Lyapunov exponent method based on chaotic time series has higher accuracy , So the research results have a certain theory and application value, which provides a new way for deformation prediction.