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文章模拟了运输成本和市场规模变化情景下市场潜力指数的变化,模拟结果表明,大部分的西部省区在现阶段的运费水平之下,能够通过运输成本的降低有所受益。但是运输成本下降的空间十分有限,难以通过运输成本的降低根本的改善西部的市场通达性。因此现阶段,市场规模是造成东西部地区之间市场潜力差异的主要原因。西部大开发进程中,国家首先致力于改善西部的投资环境,进行了大规模的基础设施建设。但是运输成本降低在改善西部地区市场通达性的同时,也减小了西部资源东运的成本。西部地区市场规模狭小,东部地区强大的市场引力作用吸引了资源的东运和制造业的集聚,成为了阻碍西部地区资源开发的逆向作用力。要对抗东部沿海地区的强大集聚引力、实现西部地区的资源开发、促进西部地区的工业化进程,就必须改善西部地区的市场通达性。因此,在推进基础设施建设的同时,西部开发应该更加重视扩大内需,增强市场引力作用。
The article simulates the changes of the market potential index under the transportation cost and market size change scenarios. The simulation results show that most of the western provinces and autonomous regions can benefit from the reduction of transportation costs under the current freight rates. However, the space for transportation cost reduction is very limited and it is difficult to basically improve the market accessibility in the west through the reduction of transportation costs. Therefore, at this stage, the market size is the main reason for the difference in market potential between the eastern and western regions. In the process of developing the western region, the state was first committed to improving the investment environment in the western region and carrying out large-scale infrastructure construction. However, the reduction of transport costs has not only reduced the cost of transporting natural resources by the western region, but also improved the accessibility in the western region. The small-scale market in the western region and the powerful market attraction in the eastern region have attracted the gathering of resources and manufacturing industries and become the reverse forces that hinder the development of resources in the western region. To counter the great concentration of gravity in the eastern coastal areas, to realize resource development in the western region and to promote the industrialization in the western region, we must improve the market accessibility in the western region. Therefore, while advancing infrastructure construction, the development of the western region should pay more attention to expanding domestic demand and boosting the market attraction.