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推进上海合作组织国家的贸易自由化,是加快丝绸之路经济带沿线国家互联互通建设的战略选择之一。本文基于GTAP模型和情景模拟方法,分析了上海合作组织国家贸易自由化的经济效应,以及对中国和“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家间贸易关系的影响。模拟结果表明,上海合作组织国家贸易自由化,可以有效应对俄—白—哈关税同盟对中国和相关国家经济和贸易带来的冲击,有助于提升中国和“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家的经济和各国间的贸易合作关系,从而推进“一带一路”战略构想的实施。并且,随着自由贸易区范围从上海合作组织成员国扩大到上海合作组织相关的所有国家,中国以及“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家的经济和各国间的贸易合作关系会更为受益。
Promoting trade liberalization in the SCO countries is one of the strategic options for speeding up national interconnection and building along the Silk Road Economic Belt. Based on the GTAP model and the scenario simulation method, this paper analyzes the economic effects of the SCO countries’ trade liberalization and the impact on the trade relations between China and the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt. The simulation results show that the SCO countries’ trade liberalization can effectively cope with the impact of the Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Customs Union on the economy and trade of China and other countries and help upgrade the economic belt of China and the Silk Road. Along the country’s economy and the trade cooperation among nations, so as to push forward the implementation of the strategic idea of “the Belt and Road”. And as the free trade area expands from the SCO member states to all SCO-affiliated countries, the economic and trade cooperation between China and other countries along the “Silk Road Economic Belt” will benefit even more .