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本文试图考察农民工工资上涨对工业资本积累的动态影响。基于结构向量自回归模型的分析表明,农民工工资上涨对工业资本积累具有渐进性影响,在短期内对它的冲击较弱,但随着时间推移不断增强。而市场需求则相反,在短期内能快速推动资本积累,但此后影响迅速衰减。尽管近年来由于后者抵消作用,资本积累没有放缓,但农民工工资上涨对它的威胁将逐渐显现。进一步分析发现,这种威胁并不主要来自于农民工工资上涨自身,而来自于农民工工资上涨后城镇劳动力工资强劲而持续的补涨。要缓解上述风险,就必须理顺工业部门工资结构,改变二元就业制度下两类工资间非对称的传导机制。
This article attempts to examine the dynamic impact of migrant workers' wages on the accumulation of industrial capital. The analysis based on the structure vector autoregressive model shows that the rising wages of migrant workers have a gradual impact on the accumulation of industrial capital, and its impact on the short term is weaker, but it has been increasing over time. On the contrary, the market demand can rapidly promote the accumulation of capital in the short run, but the impact has rapidly decayed thereafter. Although capital accumulation has not slowed down in recent years due to the latter's offsetting effect, the threat to migrant workers' wages will gradually emerge. Further analysis found that this threat does not come mainly from rising wages of migrant workers themselves, but from the rise of migrant workers wages strong and sustained urban labor wage increase. To ease the above risks, we must streamline the wage structure in the industrial sector and change the asymmetrical transmission mechanism between the two types of wages under the dual employment system.