论文部分内容阅读
为定量研究地震应急避难人群的规模及变化规律,建立需求分析的系统动力学模型。该模型包括建筑物倒塌,断水和电梯停运3种因素造成的需求。参考汶川地震中板房建设速度和电梯修复速度,以及日本关于地震断水率的研究成果,建立非线性模型拟合各需求的变化规律。采用Vensim软件建立系统动力学模型,分析各需求的综合变化规律。采用上海市徐汇区的数据进行案例演算,并与其他研究方法对比分析仿真误差。仿真结果表明:建筑物损坏对人群数量的影响很大,但是灾后1个月内断水的影响最大;相对于工程技术因素,人因对需求有重要的影响。
In order to quantitatively study the scale and variation of earthquake emergency shelters, a system dynamics model of demand analysis is established. The model includes the demand caused by three factors: building collapse, water loss and elevator outage. Reference to the Wenchuan earthquake plate room construction speed and lift repair speed, as well as Japan’s research on earthquake water cut rate, the establishment of non-linear model to fit the changing needs of each demand. Vensim software was used to establish the system dynamics model to analyze the comprehensive variation of each requirement. The data of Xuhui District in Shanghai were used to calculate the case and compared with other research methods to analyze the simulation error. The simulation results show that the damage of buildings has a great influence on the population, but the water cut is the most affected within 1 month after the disaster. Compared with engineering and technical factors, human factors have an important impact on the demand.