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经过2008年5月12日汶川8.0级大地震之后,人们对地震前兆问题广为讨论,由此引发诸多思考。基于地球系统复杂变化过程中的突变现象,分析了地震前兆信息的基本问题;指出目前社会公众对地震前出现的一些征兆现象一般存在三点不正确的认识,即认为前兆与地震应一一对应,陆区地震预报主要依赖于台网监测,地震前兆分析方法比较单一;进而提出中国地震监测预报工作应重视卫星对地观测数据的快速处理与分析,建立地震数据共享机制和地震信息汇合机构,期望我国地震监测预报理论和技术尽快实现创新发展。
After Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake on May 12, 2008, people widely discussed the issue of earthquake precursors, which triggered a lot of thinking. Based on the phenomenon of abrupt change in the complex system of earth system, this paper analyzes the basic problems of earthquake precursors information. It points out that there are generally three incorrect understandings of some signs that appear before the earthquake in the general public. That is to say, precursors and earthquakes should be one- , The earthquake prediction in the continental area mainly depends on the monitoring of the network and the method of seismic precursory analysis is simple. Furthermore, the paper puts forward that the rapid observation and processing of satellite earth observation data should be paid attention to in the seismic monitoring and forecasting in China, and the earthquake data sharing mechanism and the earthquake information convergence mechanism are established. Expectations of China’s earthquake monitoring and forecasting theory and technology to achieve innovation and development as soon as possible.