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流域管理是一个具有经济、社会与水环境等多维发展目标的复杂系统,不同目标之间存在复杂的非线性响应关系,如何模拟、协调、优化各种目标,是长期制约流域环境经济优化决策的关键技术瓶颈之一.当前在构建流域模型时往往缺乏全局性和系统性的考虑,采用线性单向建模思路,忽略了流域环境经济问题的复杂性、综合性和整体性,难以实现最优决策.针对这一不足,结合现有流域模型的建模经验与流域量化管理的需求,从系统优化发展的角度出发,基于环境经济协调度模型、系统动力学模拟模型和Powell优化模型提出了流域环境经济优化决策模型(简称ASO模型).该模型弥补了现有流域模型仅能在概念上描述因果反馈关系的不足,在数值模型上实现流域经济-社会-水环境各子系统中反馈回路的闭合,提供了一种对流域系统复杂反馈关系的模拟方法.最后,基于该模型对抚仙湖流域进行了案例研究.
River basin management is a complex system with multi-dimensional economic, social and water environment development goals. There are complex nonlinear response relationships among different targets. How to simulate, coordinate and optimize various targets is a long-term policy that restricts the optimization of environmental economy in the basin One of the bottlenecks of the key technologies.Nowadays, global and systematic considerations are often lacking in the construction of a watershed model, and the linear unidirectional modeling approach is adopted, ignoring the complexity, comprehensiveness and integrity of the environmental economic problems in the watershed and making it difficult to achieve the optimal In view of this problem, combined with the modeling experience of the existing watershed model and the demand of the quantitative management of the watershed, from the perspective of system optimization and development, this paper proposed a watershed based on the environment economy coordination degree model, the system dynamics simulation model and the Powell optimization model (ASO model) .The model makes up for the shortcomings of the current watershed model that can only describe the causal feedback relationship in the concept, and the feedback loop in the economic-social-water environment subsystems of the basin is realized on the numerical model Closed, and provides a simulation method for the complex feedback relationship of river basin system.Finally, based on the model Case studies were the watershed of Lake.