研究了发生在供应链中订货的牛鞭效应和安全库存放大问题 ,其需求模型是ARIMA(0 ,1,1) ,而所用的预测方法是简单的指数平滑 .在此基础上 ,还研究了供应商管理库存计划如何确定减轻这样的负面效应 ,并且给出了理论证明和数值解释 ,结果表明在需求预测、安全库存水平等方面使用供应商管理库存的效果比没用供应商管理库存的要好 . The problem of bullwhip effect and safety stock enlargement occurring in order placed in the supply chain is studied. The demand model is ARIMA (0,1,1), and the prediction method used is simple exponential smoothing. On the basis of this, How the supplier management stock plan determines mitigating such a negative effect and gives theoretical proof and numerical explanation shows that the use of supplier management inventory in demand forecasting, safety stock levels, etc. is better than without supplier management inventory .