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以西藏南部外流水系冰川系统结构为基础 ,应用冰川消融与夏季气温的关系、冰川径流变化规律、平衡线的代表性特征及其上升的降温效应 ,提出冰川系统变化的功能模型 .结果表明 :在持续升温的情景下 ,海洋型冰川对径流变化响应迅速 ,且退缩快、寿命短 ,而增流率不大 ,增流期短 ,在本世纪内径流将全面衰减 ;大陆型冰川对径流变化响应迟钝 ,且退缩慢、寿命长 ,而增流率大 ,增流期长 ,下世纪以后径流才将衰退 ;规模大及高差大的冰川比规模小及高差小的冰川退缩慢 ,寿命长 ,而增流率大 ,增流期长
Based on the structure of glacier system of outflowing water system in southern Tibet, a functional model of glacier system change is put forward based on the relationship between glacial melt ablation and summer temperature, the variation law of glacier runoff, the representative characteristics of the balance line and its rising cooling effect. Under the circumstance of continuous warming, the oceanic glaciers respond rapidly to the change of runoff, and they retreat rapidly with short life span. However, the increase of flow rate is not large and the runoff period is short. The runoff will be fully attenuated in this century. The continental glacier responds to the runoff changes Slow and retreat slow, long life, and the large flow rate, long run, long after the next runoff will decline; large scale and height of the glacier than the small size and small difference in the glacier retreat slow, long life , While the large flow rate, long duration of the increase