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美国与欧盟争夺世界科技领先者的竞赛是当前研究的热点。欧洲委员会最近的研究表明,欧洲在世界科技产出中所占的比重日益增加,并宣布欧洲上世纪末处于科学产出的领先地位。为了对全球发展态势进行监测,该研究对1991-2005年共15年的数据进行了分析。对科技产出活动和影响模式的分析采用的是一套文献计量指标和技术计量指标,这套指标包括:(1)出版物产出指标,如占世界总量的份额和基于主题的出版物分布概况;(2)引文指标,如基于期刊和基于主题的归一化平均引用率;(3)国际合作论文及其影响;(4)专利指标以及专利与论文之间的相互引用关系。同时文章还讨论了国家层面的文献计量学特征的演变、“科学权重”以及科学技术关联的模式。研究结果表明,采用科学技术指标这面镜子所反映的“三极对垒”模式在21世纪将不会长久,中国正在挑战一流科学经济强国的地位,并且其成为世界第二大科技强国的时代正在到来。
The contest between the United States and the EU for the competition of the world's science and technology leaders is a hot spot in the current research. Recent studies by the European Commission show that Europe is increasing its share of world science and technology output and that Europe is at the leading position of scientific output by the end of the century. In order to monitor the global development situation, the study analyzed a total of 15 years of data from 1991 to 2005. An analysis of S & T output activities and impact models employs a set of bibliometric and technical indicators that include: (1) Indicators of output of publications, such as the share of the world total and the thematic publications (2) Citation indicators such as journal-based and topic-based average normalized citation rates; (3) International cooperation papers and their implications; (4) Patent indicators and the cross-referencing relationship between patents and theses. At the same time, the article also discusses the evolution of the national-level bibliometric features, the “scientific weight” and the mode of science and technology association. The results show that using the mirror of science and technology can not last long in the 21st century as reflected in the mirror. China is challenging the status of a leading scientific and economic power and becoming the second largest scientific and technological power in the world Times are coming.